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New misguided interpretations of the greenhouse effect from William Kininmonth

Real Climate

Another clue is William Kininmonth’s ‘rethink’ on the greenhouse effect for The Global Warming Policy Foundation. When looking at the effect of changes in greenhouse gases, one must look at how their forcing corresponds to the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere. 2015) , and this is also applies to Kininmonth’s calculations.

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What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Real Climate

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large-scale overturning motion of the entire Atlantic, from the Southern Ocean to the high north. Graph by Ruijian Gou. The AMOC is a big deal for climate. It moves around 15 million cubic meters of water per second (i.e. 15 Sverdrup). For more on this see my Review Paper in Nature.

Ocean 246
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A CERES of fortunate events…

Real Climate

2021) show that the trends in the EEI derived from CERES match what you get from the changes in ocean heat content. Satellite-derived trends in EEI compared to estimates from changes in ocean heat (Loeb et al., The simplest model for the greenhouse effect. Similarly, Loeb et al. A simple model with feedbacks.

Radiation 360
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

However, that was written in 2007 – 15 years ago! Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect. Thus there must be a large amount of IR absorbed by the atmosphere (around 158 W/m 2 ) – a number that would be zero in the absence of any greenhouse substances. The Earth’s Energy Budget (NASA).

2022 352
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Another dot on the graph

Real Climate

Unlike in years past, there is no longer any serious discrepancy between the records – which use multiple approaches for the ocean temperatures, the homogenization of the weather stations records, and interpolation. Southern Ocean trends. The least visited part of the ocean are the waters around Antarctica. References.

Cooling 362
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Sea level in the IPCC 6th assessment report (AR6)

Real Climate

The IPCC has introduced a new high-end risk scenario, stating that a global rise “approaching 2 m by 2100 and 5 m by 2150 under a very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario cannot be ruled out due to deep uncertainty in ice sheet processes.”. The IPCC gives more consideration to the large long-term sea-level rise beyond the year 2100.

Sea Level 363
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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

A friend asked me if a discussion paper published on Statistics Norway’s website, ‘ To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions? ’, was purposely timed for the next climate summit ( COP28 ). Furthermore, the volume of the oceans increases from the melting of land ice. See for instance Benestad (2016).

Sea Level 354