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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 291
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium. in IPCC TAR).

Radiation 352
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The AMOC is slowing, it’s stable, it’s slowing, no, yes, …

Real Climate

Of the 24 CMIP6 models, a full 23 underestimate the sea surface cooling in the ‘cold blob’ And most of the CMIP6 models even show a strengthening of the AMOC in the historic period, which past studies have shown to be linked to strong aerosol forcing in many of these models (e.g. Menary et al. 2020 , Robson et al.

Ocean 362
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Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs

Real Climate

Some of you will have heard of John Clauser because he was an awardee of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics for his role in the experimental verification of quantum entanglement. He, however, goes seriously off the rails when he estimates the impact of clouds on the radiation budget. John Clauser’s theory of climate explained.

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New journal: Nature 2023?

Real Climate

Impacts of Hunga-Tonga Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) The eruption of HTHH in January 2022, reached 56km high in the stratosphere and increased stratospheric water vapor by ~10% while also depositing SO 2 in the stratosphere. The mix of warming and cooling effects and different timescales for each, makes calculating the impact hard.

2023 211
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Phantastic Job!

Real Climate

Warm temperatures prior to the Ordovician glaciation, rises of temperature through the Devonian, a dip through the Carboniferous, peaking again at the beginning of the Triassic, slightly cooler in the Jurassic, peaking again mid-Cretaceous and then (roughly speaking) cooling into the Neogene (and the last 3 million years of ice age cycles).

Sea Level 358
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Environmental Health Project To Hold April 1 Webinar On What The Shapiro Administration Can Do To Better Protect Public Health From The Impacts Of Shale Gas Development

PA Environment Daily

The webinar will serve as a platform for the virtual release of Pennsylvanias Shale Gas Boom: What the Shapiro Administration Can Do to Better Protect Public Health, a companion piece to our 2022 white paper on shale gas development accountability.