Remove 2014 Remove Cooling Remove Greenhouse
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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 291
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How not to science

Real Climate

McNider and Christy, Feb 19th 2014, Wall Street Journal Most of the op-ed is a rather tired rehash of faux outrage based on a comment made by John Kerry (the then Secretary of State) and we can skip right past that. Remember ‘satellite cooling’?]. The version of the MSU2R product at the beginning of 2014 was version 5.5,

2014 343
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

The cause of our changing climate is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that we have released into the air. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most important greenhouse gas that we have added to the atmosphere, however, some of it has been absorbed by land and oceans.

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Phantastic Job!

Real Climate

It is not as though people have not tried – we discussed this here in 2014, where we made a plea for better graphs of the global temperature. All of which adds to the uncertainty. Now, 10 years later, we finally have something. The first factor increases the apparent sensitivity, and the second decreases it.

Sea Level 358
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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). estimate of no further CO 2 -induced warming or cooling once global CO 2 emissions reach and stay at next zero. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Leitzell, E.

2018 358
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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle: Almost every IPCC report has a version of the radiative bar chart showing the contributions over the historical period of all the different forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar, etc.). 1, SPM, AR5.

Sea Level 361
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What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Real Climate

The AMOC has repeatedly shown major instabilities in recent Earth history , for example during the Last Ice Age, prompting concerns about its stability under future global warming, see e.g. Broecker 1987 who warned about “unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse”. For more on this see my Review Paper in Nature. Here a quote from Liu et al.

Ocean 246