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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 256
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Not just another dot on the graph?

Real Climate

Only the jump from 2014 to 2015 (coincidentally (?) Of course, the records being set in the UAH TLT record blows the ‘climate has been cooling since 2016’ trope that they used through to about last summer, leaving them no plausible data refuge. In the GISTEMP product, the record was easily broken, and by a record amount.

Ocean 343
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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

Since this is a somewhat differently designed ensemble, I’ll plot that similarly (45 simulations), and note too that these are global means, again, for the corrected-TMT product (for the historical and SSP2-45 scenarios after 2014). Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. 55-58, 2004. Hausfather, K. Marvel, G.A. Schmidt, J.W. 26-29, 2022.

2004 328
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2022 updates to the temperature records

Real Climate

impart a slight cooling. Consequently, a line drawn from an El Niño year to a subsequent La Niña year will almost always show a cooling – a fact well known to the climate disinformers (though they are not so quick to show the uncertainties in such cherry picks!). El Niño events enhance global warming (as in 1998, 2010, 2016 etc.)

2022 297
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Weather satellite sheds light on ‘Great Dimming’ of Betelgeuse star

Physics World

This, astronomers believe, allowed the cloud to cool and condense into dust that blocked some of Betelgeuse’s light. The satellite was launched in 2014 and is in geostationary orbit 35,786 km above the western Pacific. The satellite revealed that the star itself cooled by 140 °C. Stellar background.

Cooling 145
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What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Real Climate

A recent study by Qasmi 2023 has combined observations and models to isolate the drivers and concludes for the ‘cold blob’ region: “Consistent with the observations, an anthropogenic cooling is diagnosed by the method over the last decades (1951–2021) compared to the preindustrial period.” Here a quote from Liu et al.

Ocean 246
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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). estimate of no further CO 2 -induced warming or cooling once global CO 2 emissions reach and stay at next zero. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Leitzell, E.

2018 322