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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 254
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Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28

Real Climate

It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.” It’s not hard to understand. Gray areas show lack of data.

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Glossary of Greenhouse Gas Terms

Greenbuilding Law

With proposed federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions by the Securities and Exchange Commission requiring GHG disclosure and new state statutes, including a new Maryland law that requires not only disclosure, but also a mandated reduction in GHG emissions, a greater appreciation of the subject of GHG appears in order. See, Weather.

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The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Real Climate

Two decades ago, in an interview with science journalist Richard Kerr for the journal Science, I coined the term the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” (AMO) to describe an internal oscillation in the climate system resulting from interactions between North Atlantic ocean currents and wind patterns. Background.

Cooling 243
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Analysis: How fast can we stop Earth from warming??

A Greener Life

Picture how a radiator heats a home. Water is heated by a boiler, and the hot water circulates through pipes and radiators in the house. The radiators warm up and heat the air in the room. The radiators are, in fact, cooling down, but their stored heat is still warming the air in the room.

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A Nobel pursuit

Real Climate

Last week, the Nobel physics prize was (half) awarded to Suki Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann for their work on climate prediction and the detection and attribution of climate change. This came as quite a surprise to the climate community – though it was welcomed warmly. But let’s go back to the beginning.

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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

estimate of no further CO 2 -induced warming or cooling once global CO 2 emissions reach and stay at next zero. ZEC therefore causes no changes between SR1.5 Rogelj et al, 2018; Huppmann et al, 2018), but with climate projections updated entirely with dedicated climate emulators that integrate the scientific information across chapter.

2018 329