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2022 updates to model-observation comparisons

Real Climate

This has now been completed for 2022. This is related to the commentary we published last year ( Hausfather et al, 2022 ), where we show that this screen is a reasonable match to the IPCC AR6 assessed projections that used emulators constrained by observations. 26-29, 2022. The CMIP3 ensemble continues to astound! Casas, G.A.

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New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

Real Climate

The paper results from a major computational effort, based on running a state-of-the-art climate model (the CESM model with horizontal resolution 1° for the ocean/sea ice and 2° for the atmosphere/land component) for 4,400 model years. Figure adapted from Caesar et al., Nature 2018.

Ocean 364
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium. in IPCC TAR).

Radiation 316
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Dry: A Weekly Western Drought Digest — September 13, 2022

Circle of Blue

By Delaney Nelson, Circle of Blue – September 13, 2022. This year marked the third-warmest summer on record for the contiguous United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 2022 drew to a close the 3rd-warmest summer on record for the contiguous US. Forests become tinder boxes.

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The Year in Water, 2022

Circle of Blue

The Year in Water, 2022. Sharpening the Shark’s Teeth By Brett Walton, Circle of Blue – December 13, 2022. The strength of the shark’s teeth and the breadth of the bite were on full display in 2022. In many ways the superlatives are derived from a fevered atmosphere. Brett Walton. Brett Walton. Brett Walton.

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Prepare for Another Dangerous Hurricane Season Predicted for 2022

Union of Concerned Scientists

Still, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast , released on May 24, and the Colorado State University (CSU) forecast , released on April 7, predict a season with above-normal activity— for the seventh consecutive year. This year broke the streak, and that is a good thing.

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Climate Change in 2022: Multiple Billion-Dollar Disasters and Unbearable Human Costs

Union of Concerned Scientists

Today the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual report on billion-dollar weather and climate-related disasters in the United States, which tells a grimly familiar story. Together these disasters cost at least $165 billion, making 2022 the third most costly year on record. Source: NOAA [link].