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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. But why is the stratosphere increasingly chill? The basic concept is easy to grasp though.

Cooling 254
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect. This means that there is an upward surface flux of IR around (~398 W/m 2 ), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation absorbed (~240 W/m 2 ). Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.

Radiation 316
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Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28

Real Climate

It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.” It’s not hard to understand. Gray areas show lack of data.

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Glossary of Greenhouse Gas Terms

Greenbuilding Law

With proposed federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions by the Securities and Exchange Commission requiring GHG disclosure and new state statutes, including a new Maryland law that requires not only disclosure, but also a mandated reduction in GHG emissions, a greater appreciation of the subject of GHG appears in order.

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A Nobel pursuit

Real Climate

The key aspects were the inclusion of water vapour feedback as temperatures increased, and the use of ‘convective adjustment’ to maintain stability of the lower atmospheric column. The basic issue stems from the different timescales of the ocean and atmosphere. But let’s go back to the beginning.

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Analysis: How fast can we stop Earth from warming??

A Greener Life

If people everywhere stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, stored heat would still continue to warm the atmosphere. Picture how a radiator heats a home. Water is heated by a boiler, and the hot water circulates through pipes and radiators in the house. The radiators warm up and heat the air in the room.

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The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Real Climate

These interactions were thought to lead to alternating decades-long intervals of warming and cooling centered in the extra-tropical North Atlantic that play out on 40-60 year timescales (hence the name). Background. any oscillation that was produced has to be internally generated.

Cooling 243