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Why is future sea level rise still so uncertain?

Real Climate

Three new papers in the last couple of weeks have each made separate claims about whether sea level rise from the loss of ice in West Antarctica is more or less than you might have thought last month and with more or less certainty.

Sea Level 255
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Dr. Shaina Sadai Talks About COP27, Climate Justice, Sea Level Rise, and Corporate Accountability

Union of Concerned Scientists

An expert on sea level dynamics and climate justice within the UN negotiations, Dr. Sadai is working to ensure that her scientific studies get in the hands of decisionmakers who are shaping our world today. SS: My climate change research journey began in 2015 when I started my Ph.D. at UMass Amherst.

Sea Level 246
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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

Sea level rise is a big deal Use, abuse and misuse of the CMIP6 ensemble The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle Droughts and floods are complicated Don’t mention the hiatus. Sea Level Rise: The previous IPCC reports, notably AR4 and AR5 (to a lesser extent) , have had a hard time dealing with SLR.

Sea Level 361
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The water south of Greenland has been cooling, so what causes that?

Real Climate

Finally, some have suggested that the cold blob south of Greenland has been caused by increased heat loss to the atmosphere. Schaffernicht, 2015: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. 2022), Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise, Nature Clim.

Cooling 363
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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

are used all over the world, based on calculations that quantify the effects of physical mechanisms and the way different parts of the atmosphere are connected to each other. The physics-based models describe how energy flows through the atmosphere and ocean, as well as how the forces from different air masses push against each other.

Sea Level 354
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The Fossil Fuel Industry Continues Producing Heat-Trapping Emissions that Drive Climate Change

Union of Concerned Scientists

My fellowship is based on using data that trace heat-trapping emissions to major fossil fuel producers in order to understand how they have affected the climate, particularly global sea levels, and to aid efforts to hold these producers accountable. I’ve marked these important years with dotted lines in Figure 2.

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Alaska Communities Struggle for Baseline Water Data Amid Climate Uncertainty

Circle of Blue

All of Seldovia draws its water from a single reservoir, which sits within city limits no more than 200 feet above sea level. Atmospheric warming, however, will almost certainly affect the waters quality. percent, relative to 2015. And then it started to dawn on us, Cameron says. Wow, there hasnt been very much rain.

2019 155