By Anders Lorenzen

The consumption of coal, the most climate polluting fossil fuel, is predicted to peak by 2025 in China, the world’s highest emitting country.

Analysis by Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons (BMT), the state-run energy group said in an outlook released today (28th December).

Its outlook also predicted that renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind are likely to exceed the equivalence of 3 BMT of standard coal by 2045 to become the dominant energy source for more than half of primary energy consumption, Sinopec’s 2060 outlook stated.

Oil for longer

The Chinese energy giant predicts that oil consumption will peak a little later between 2026-2030 at 800 million metric tons (MMT), or about 16 million barrels per day (MBD), which they put down to faster-than-expected expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, such as electric and hybrid vehicles.

China is currently the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and is estimated to use 760 million tons, or 15.2 million bpd of oil this year.

In addition, the energy outlook by the fossil fuel company expects the demand for natural gas, considered by some to be a key bridge fuel before reaching carbon neutrality to plateau at around 2040 of 610 billion cubic metres (BCM) to account for 13% of primary energy use. This compares with 425 BCM and 9% of primary energy consumption projected for 2025.

Emissions peak

China’s total carbon emissions from energy activities are expected to peak during 2025 at 10.1 billion metric tons (BMT).

Historically big industrial energy outlooks have downplayed the role of renewable energy, and the fact that Sinopec is a fossil fuel producing giant, the extent to which degree fossil fuels will continue to play a role in China’s energy system moving forward should be taken with a pinch of salt.