By Anders Lorenzen

On the eve of the COP28 climate summit, scientists at the United Nations (UN) warned that the world is on track for 3 degrees C of warming by the end of this decade. This is double the target that world leaders agreed to in 2015 when the Paris Agreement deal was struck and subsequently implemented.

But with COP28 beginning in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) next week, analysis conducted by the UN concludes that countries current emission pledges will see the world warm by 3 degrees C. This, Scientists for decades have stressed would be catastrophic for human civilisation, and something which must be avoided at all cost.

According to the Emissions Gap report, released annually by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and which looks at the pledges made by countries to tackle climate change, the world faces between 2.5C and 2.9C of warming above pre-industrial levels, if countries do not drastically increase their emissions-cutting pledges.

The point of no return

Climate scientists warn that facing a scenario where the world warms by 3 degrees C, we would pass a point of no-return tipping points. These would see the melting of the world’s ice sheets and the drying out of the Amazon rainforest – just to quote some examples.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres didn’t mince his words when reacting to the report: “Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise. The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon.”

When world leaders meet in Dubai on the 30th of November, the target is still standing at the original pledge to keep temperature increases to 1.5 degrees C, which most agree is completely unrealistic and unworkable.

It is increasingly likely that COP28 will be remembered as the summit that effectively kills the target that world leaders celebrated in 2015 in Paris. Even when looking at the most optimistic emissions scenario, the chance of holding warming to 1.5 degrees C only is unlikely at best.

Between 2021 and 2022 global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% – reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent.

To determine countries’ ambitions and pledges, the authors of the report analysed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), this being the initiative under which countries are required to unveil their pledges.

Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report, explained that these pledges had not changed since last year’s report.