Characterizing Climate Change from Heating, Not Merely Temperature

Trenberth, K. E. (2023). “Characterizing Climate Change from Heating, Not Merely Temperature.” Journal of Climate Action, Research, and Policy, 01, 2475001. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2972312424750018

Abstract

Current human-induced climate change arises primarily from the heating of the planet mainly from changes in atmospheric composition, and temperature change is one manifestation. The increasing greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, lead to Earth?s Energy Imbalance (EEI), altering the flow of energy through the climate system, and the dissemination of excess energy is partly what determines how climate change is manifested. Some of the extremes being experienced, especially those involving drought, convection, storms, flooding, and the water cycle, are mostly driven by aspects of heating and, while temperature contributes through the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere, it is more a consequence than a cause. Afterall, water is the air conditioner of the planet. The United Nations, and especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their Summary for Policy Makers, focus on global temperature targets rather than broader facets of climate change including EEI, and do not always adequately discriminate between temperature and heating. This also has consequences for future climate if or when heating is brought under control by cutting emissions. Improvements are needed in expressing how the climate is changing by properly accounting for the flow of energy through the climate system.