Could Trump Cancel the IRA?
Probably not. But also possibly yes.
The Inflation Reduction Act is Biden’s signature climate initiative. Trump has already called for repealing it, and so have some Republicans in Congress. Given the IRA’s huge cuts in carbon emissions, that would be a tragedy. Can he do that?
He would certainly face some very significant barriers. Trump would need Republican majorities in the Senate (very likely) and the House (less likely). When Trump was in office before, the Republicans found it difficult to pass legislation, and today’s GOP House can barely manage to function. Although they’ve expressed vociferous opposition to the IRA, it wouldn’t be at the top of their list of legislative priorities. And the IRA is supporting billions of dollars of investment in Red States. As Evan George and I have argued, this makes for a powerful incentive to keep the law in place.
Yet I’m still worried. Here’s why. Ideology often seems to trump policy in today’s GOP. Keep in mind that Republicans came within a single Senate vote of repealing Obamacare, even though many Republican governors opposed repeal because it would harm their states. (The decisive voter was John McCain’s, who is no longer with us.) In addition, an IRA repeal could be as an offset for the revenue loss from a big tax cut. And both of the tax cut and the IRA repeal would qualify for the filibuster-proof “reconciliation “ procedure in the Senate.
The bottom line is that the odds are against Trump repealing the IRA.. But that’s far from being a sure thing. And repeal of the IRA would be a disaster for climate policy. Even though it seems like an unlikely outcome, it’s definitely not impossible.
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3 Replies to “Could Trump Cancel the IRA?”
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About Dan
Dan Farber has written and taught on environmental and constitutional law as well as about contracts, jurisprudence and legislation. Currently at Berkeley Law, he has al…
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Why would Trump repeal the IRA when it gives BILLONS of dollars to his friends, and Biden’s at the Fossil Fuel industry. I think your binary analysis fails to discuss the many harmful aspects of the IRA that will and is harming EJ communities, including Tribal communities. We have to be consistent both as scholars and climate justice practitioners.
There’s no question that the IRA has flaws. Of course, people may differ about how much those flaws are balanced by other provisions directly assisting tribes and EJ communities. But in the end, I think the key question in striking the balance is how much urgency one feels about climate change. Is climate change such an urgent crisis that it’s worth getting major emission cuts now even if the legislation is flawed? Or is it worth delaying climate action in the hope of getting something better at some future time?
I wanted to add a thanks for raising this issue. I’m enthusiastic about the IRA but don’t want to gloss over its shortcomings. It’s a starting point, not an ultimate solution.