The report concluded the PJM grid operating area will have “normal” reliability risk, although PJM’s summer reliability assessment said for the first time its energy peak forecast for the summer shows available generation capacity may fall short of required reserves in an extreme weather scenario and may need demand-response resources to help reduce load. Read more here.
In addition, aggregated peak demand is forecast to increase across all 23 assessment areas by 10 GW—more than double the increase from 2023 to 2024.
New data centers, electrification, and industrial activity are contributing to higher demand forecasts.
While all areas are projected to have adequate resources for normal summer conditions, above-normal electricity demand, periods of low wind and solar output, and wide-area heat events that disrupt available transfers and generator availability could leave system operators short on supply in at-risk areas, the assessment finds.
New resource additions—primarily solar and some batteries—are helping to meet surging load growth.
However, these additions are offset by ongoing generator retirements and introduce more complexity and energy limitations into the resource mix.
“While the grid faces several challenges this summer, areas such as Texas, California, and across the U.S. West have seen an influx of battery energy storage systems in recent years, which is reducing energy shortfalls associated with supply variability and demand spikes,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments. “This is improving system operators’ ability to manage energy risks during challenging summer periods.”
NERC found several areas to be at risk of supply shortfalls during potential summer conditions--
-- Midcontinent Independent System Operator has less supply capacity compared to last summer as a result of generator retirements and less firm imports; the area could face supply shortfalls during above-normal peak demand.
-- In the Southwest Power Pool, wide-area heat events can drive high electricity demand and force generators off-line, leaving operators with insufficient flexible resources to counter wind resource variability.
-- Continued growth in both loads and solar PV resources in Texas could leave the ERCOT system with energy shortages when solar generation ramps down and demand remains elevated.
-- Reserve capacity in NPCC New England has fallen from the prior summer with the loss of resources and higher demand, increasing the area’s reliance on neighbors during stressful summer conditions.
Click Here for a copy of the NERC announcement.
Related Articles This Week:
-- Rise Of The Machines: Senate, House Members Express Concern That Demand For Power To Run Computers Is Impacting The Price And Availability Of Electricity For ‘Ordinary People’ [PaEN]
-- US EIA: US Natural Gas Prices Double Last Year Due To LNG Exports, Demand Driving Electricity Prices Higher This Summer [PaEN]
-- North American Electric Reliability Corp.: Record Load Growth From Data Centers, High Temperatures Expected To Strain Electric Grid This Summer [PaEN]
NewsClips:
-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: NRG Buys 5 PA Gas Power Plants To Meet ‘Supercycle’ Of Demand By Data Centers; Refitted To Run As Baseload Plants
-- PennLive: PPL Customers Will See Another Rate Increase June 1 - 16% [Due To Regional Electric Market Issues]
-- Financial Times: Constellation Energy, Other Companies Abandon Almost Half the Projects In $5 Billion Texas Program To Fund Natural Gas Power Plants Due To Costs, Supply Chain Delays [Sen. Yaw Wants A Program Like This In PA]
[Posted: May 14, 2025] PA Environment Digest
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