Adieu `Mutti´: Germany`s next government? - An Energy and Climate Analysis

On 26 September 2021 general elections in Germany concluded with a tricky result. Negotations to form a coalition government are complicated. But the aims of which parties overlap the most when it comes to  energy and climate? This blog entry analysis party positions on energy and climate of the 4 most likely German parties in Germany, tipped to play a role in coalition negotiations, namely CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne and FDP.

The Social Democrats (SPD)  came out top in Germany`s general elections. But this result does not mean they will be able to install their candidate as successor of Angela Merkel. Several options to form a new government are on the table and it is, thus, important to take a closer look at the election manifestos of the main parties to establish overlap on energy and climate issues.

SPD

The party of well-known German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz aims to make Germany climate-neutral by 2045. This is not a particular or new policy, given that this aim has already been installed in the new Climate Protection Act by the late-Merkel government earlier this year. However, while the last government did not provide specifics on how to reach the targets, this is now spelled out in a little more detail in the SPD-programme. Electricity shall be produced entirely from renewable sources by 2040. To achieve this, Renewable Energy Targets shall be increased. The `backbone` shall be wind and solar, but the Social Democrats are also banking on geothermal and green hydrogen. Germany shall become a `leading market` for hydrogen by 2030. There shall be social transfer measures to ease the burden of increasing CO2 prices for low-income households. The infamous EEG-surcharge shall be erased by 2025. The building sector shall be made more energy efficient, inter alia via an increased price for CO2. This CO2 price, however, shall be paid only by landlords and not by tenants. In terms of mobility does the SPD aim for 15 million electric vehicles on German streets by 2030, the increase of public transport and train connections and a general speed limit of 130 km/h. (All information to be found here at pp. 8-11 - German language version only)

CDU/CSU

Just like the SPD, the CDU/CSU start the part of their programmes on Energy and Climate by simply reiterating the, already existing, climate goals of climate neutrality by 2045, reduction of 65% compared to 1990 levels, by 2030 and by 88% in 2040. Emissions-Trading is a key instrument for the conservative parties. They want to improve the European Emissions Trading Scheme by making it applicable to more sectors. Income that is being generated via the scheme shall be given back to citizens in a reduction of the electricity price. The EEG surcharge shall be abandoned immediately. The conservative parties wish to support similar renewable energy technologies like the Social Democrats (solar, wind, biomassa, hydropower, geothermal, hydrogen) and wish to improve energy efficiency. The railway-network shall be extended, including improved overnight train services. However, airtravel is considered a substantial part of the future travel mix and car manufacturing shall remain as an integral part of Germany`s industry policy. The conservative parties do not approve of a general speed limit in Germany. (All information to be found here at pp. 40-44 and 103 - German language version only)

The Green Party (Die Grünen)

The pledeges of the Green party in Germany concerning climate activities are more concrete than those of the other parties. The Green party wishes to install an `ìmmediate climate programme`. They are aiming for even more ambitious climate targets than the ones currently implemented. Greenhouse Gas Emmissions shall be reduced by 70% in 2030. By 2035 shall electricty merely be produced from renewable sources and climate neutrality shall be achieved until 2041. Germany`s coal exit shall be antedated to 2030 (currently 2038 at most) and 1.5 million new roofs with solar penals shall be build within the next 4 years. The German price for emitting a ton of CO2 is currently at (around) 25 Euros and shall be increased to 60 Euros/ton in 2023 and increased further afterwards. The income generated from shall be given back to citizens via a so called `Energiegeld` (energy money). With a view to the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Greens plead for a further tightening of certificates. In general, climate protection is not seen as a task for only one ressort, but instead all ministries shall always take it into account in all their activities. Moreover, a new to build Ministry of Climate shall have a veto-right for all government measures. Public procurement shall take climate considerations much more into account as a criterion. With a view to  the transport sector, the Greens are technology-neutral when it comes to zero emission vehicles and they want to have a minimum of 15 million zero emission vehicles on the roads by 2035. Moreover, they want to invest 100 billion Euros until 2035, in addition to current plans, into the railway system. From 2030 onwards only zero emission vehicles can be registered in Germany, as far as the Green party is concerned. The party wishes to create a `mobility-guarantee´ for rural areas and advocates a general speed limit of 130 km/h. (All information to be found here at pp. 5-15 - German language version only)

Liberal Democrats (FDP)

The LibDems could tip the scales towards a new government - in one direction or the other. In terms of energy and climate the Liberals are pleading for innovation instead of prohibitions. They are banking on new technologies and a market that works as free as possible to reach Germany`s climate targets. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme shall be extended to all sectors as quickly as possible. They also want to pay Co2 sequestration activities with the income from this scheme - strongly supporting inter alia Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The price for CO2 shall be unified around the globe in the long term. To counter the resulting cost-increase, the FDP wishes to pay out a `Climate dividend` to all citizens. They also want to abolish both the EEG-surcharge as well as electricity taxation. While the Liberal Democrats are supporting all types of Renewable Energy generation, they want to lend special support to the increase of hydrogen in our energy systems. However, they are strongly in favour of several `colours´ of hydrogen including `blue´as well as ´turquise´ hydrogen, both of which are created with the help of natural gas. The creation of a European Hydrogen Union and an internal market for hydrogen shall help in meeting increased hydrogen demand in Germany via imports. The FDP is against speed limits, against driving restrictions for older diesel cars and against a prohibition of cars running on combustion engines. The Liberals are, however, technology-neutral in terms of alternative modes of transport and support alternative fuels and e-fuels. Finally, they wish to partly privatize railroad transport to make it more efficient and drive down costs, although the railway track system as such shall remain as property of the German state. (All information to be found here at pp. 26-29 and 58-60 - German language version only)

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